Screening Saham

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## Mengapa Screening Sistematis Adalah Game Changer?

### Masalah Tanpa Sistem:

```

Investor A (No System):

├─ Baca berita: "GOTO bakal profit tahun ini!"

├─ Lihat influencer: "BBRI undervalued!"

├─ Teman kasih tips: "BREN mau listing, pasti naik!"

└─ Hasil: Portfolio berantakan, no conviction, panic sell saat turun

```

### Dengan Sistem Screening:

```

Investor B (Systematic):

├─ Top down: Sektor finansial attractive (early easing cycle)

├─ Screen 40+ bank stocks dengan kriteria ketat

├─ Dapat 5 kandidat terbaik

├─ Deep dive fundamental + teknikal + bandarmologi

├─ Pilih 2-3 dengan conviction tertinggi

└─ Entry dengan sizing & SL jelas

└─ Hasil: High conviction, tahan drawdown, profit konsisten

```

---

## 1. Framework Screening 5 Tahap (The Funnel System)

```

STAGE 1: Universe Definition (800+ stocks)

↓ Filter makro & sektor

STAGE 2: Quantitative Screening (200 stocks)

↓ Filter metrik fundamental

STAGE 3: Quality Check (50 stocks)

↓ Deep dive laporan keuangan

STAGE 4: Bandarmologi Check (20 stocks)

↓ Analisis transaksi broker & asing

STAGE 5: Technical Timing (10 stocks)

↓ Entry point & risk-reward

FINAL: 3-5 Conviction Buys

```

---

## 2. STAGE 1: Universe Definition

### A. Pre-Filter Berdasarkan Top Down (Dari Sesi 3)

**Contoh Aplikasi:**

```

Hasil Top Down Analysis (Januari 2024):

├─ Cycle: Late cycle → Early easing

├─ Sektor pilihan: Financials, Consumer Staples, Plantation

└─ Market: 40% IDN, 50% US, 10% Cash

ACTION:

Fokus screening hanya di 3 sektor tersebut

└─ Jangan buang waktu screen saham tech saat cycle tidak mendukung

```

### B. Liquidity Filter (Hanya Saham Likuid)

**Kriteria Minimum:**

|-----------|-----------|------------|--------------|

| **IDN** | Free Float | > 20% | Cukup float untuk retail |

**Tools:**

- **IDN:** Stockbit screener, RTI Business

- **US:** Finviz.com, TradingView screener

**Action:**

```

Masuk Stockbit/RTI → Screener

├─ Set: Market cap > 5T

├─ Set: Avg value > 10M

└─ Filter sektor: Financials, Consumer, Plantation

Result: ~200 stocks → 60-80 stocks

```

---

## 3. STAGE 2: Quantitative Screening (The Numbers Don't Lie)

### A. Fundamental Metrics - IDN Stocks

#### **Kategori 1: Profitabilitas**

|-----------|-----------|------------|--------------|----------------|

| **ROE** | Net Income / Equity | > 10% | > 20% | Laporan keuangan, Stockbit |

| **ROA** | Net Income / Total Assets | > 5% | > 10% | Laporan keuangan |

**Interpretation:**

```

ROE > 15% + ROA > 8% = Bisnis yang sangat profitable

ROE tinggi tapi ROA rendah = Leverage tinggi (hati-hati)

Net Margin > 15% = Pricing power kuat (competitive advantage)

```

**Stockbit Screener Setup:**

```

Filter:

├─ ROE > 15%

├─ Net Margin > 10%

└─ Market Cap > 5T

Result: 60-80 stocks → 30-40 stocks

```

---

#### **Kategori 2: Valuasi (Apakah Harganya Masuk Akal?)**

|-----------|-----------|----------------|-----------|

| **PER** | Price / EPS | 10-20x | Sesuaikan dengan sektor & growth |

| **PBV** | Price / Book Value per Share | 1-3x | < 1x bisa value trap atau distress |

| **PEG** | PER / Earnings Growth Rate | < 1 | Undervalued relative to growth |

**Sector-Specific PER Benchmark (IDN):**

|-----------|---------------|--------------|----------|

| **Banking** | 12-18x | > 20x | < 10x |

| **Consumer Staples** | 20-30x | > 35x | < 18x |

| **Plantation** | 10-15x | > 18x | < 8x |

| **Mining/Coal** | 5-10x | > 12x | < 5x (cyclical bottom) |

| **Technology** | 25-40x | > 50x | < 20x |

| **Property** | 8-15x | > 18x | < 6x |

**Cara Pakai:**

```

Contoh: BBCA

├─ PER saat ini: 18x

├─ PER historis 5 tahun: 15-22x

├─ Sector avg: 15x

└─ Conclusion: Slightly expensive vs sector, tapi dalam range historis

└─ Jika top down support → masih bisa masuk (premium deserved)

```

**Advanced: PEG Ratio (Peter Lynch Favorite)**

```

BBCA:

├─ PER: 18x

├─ Earnings Growth (5Y avg): 12%

└─ PEG = 18 / 12 = 1.5

Interpretation:

├─ PEG < 1 = Undervalued (relative to growth)

├─ PEG 1-2 = Fair value

└─ PEG > 2 = Overvalued

Action: BBCA fair value, not a screaming buy on valuation alone

```

---

#### **Kategori 3: Financial Health (Kesehatan Keuangan)**

|-----------|-----------|------------|-------------|

| **DER** | Total Debt / Equity | < 1x (non-financial) | > 2x |

| **Current Ratio** | Current Assets / Current Liabilities | > 1.5x | < 1x |

| **Interest Coverage** | EBIT / Interest Expense | > 5x | < 2x |

**Sector Exception:**

```

Banking: DER tinggi adalah normal (leverage bisnis model)

├─ Focus on: CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) > 14%

├─ NPL (Non-Performing Loan) < 3%

└─ LDR (Loan to Deposit Ratio) 80-92% (optimal)

```

**Red Flags yang HARUS Dihindari:**

```

❌ DER > 2x (kecuali banking/financial)

❌ Current Ratio < 1 (liquidity crisis risk)

❌ Interest Coverage < 2x (struggle bayar bunga)

❌ Negative FCF 3 tahun berturut-turut (burning cash)

❌ Revenue turun 2 tahun berturut-turut (declining business)

```

---

#### **Kategori 4: Growth (Momentum Bisnis)**

|-----------|-----------|------------|--------------|

| **Revenue Growth** | YoY | > 5% | > 15% |

| **Earnings Growth** | YoY | > 10% | > 20% |

| **EPS Growth** | 3Y CAGR | > 10% | > 15% |

| **Book Value Growth** | 3Y CAGR | > 8% | > 12% |

**Cara Hitung (Manual di Excel):**

```

Revenue Growth YoY:

(Revenue 2023 - Revenue 2022) / Revenue 2022 × 100%

EPS CAGR 3 tahun:

((EPS 2023 / EPS 2020)^(1/3)) - 1

Example BBCA:

├─ EPS 2020: Rp 500

├─ EPS 2023: Rp 650

└─ CAGR = ((650/500)^(1/3)) - 1 = 9.1%

```

**Kombinasi Ideal:**

```

Growth + Value Sweet Spot:

├─ Earnings Growth > 15%

├─ PER < 15x

└─ PEG < 1

Result: High conviction buy

```

---

### B. Quantitative Screener - IDN (Template Lengkap)

**Conservative Growth Portfolio:**

```

Stockbit/RTI Screener:

├─ Market Cap > Rp 10T

├─ ROE > 15%

├─ DER < 1 (exclude financials)

├─ PER: 10-20x

├─ Revenue Growth (1Y) > 10%

├─ Free Float > 30%

└─ Avg Daily Value > Rp 20M

Expected result: 15-25 stocks

```

**Aggressive Growth Portfolio:**

```

├─ Market Cap > Rp 5T

├─ ROE > 20%

├─ Revenue Growth > 20%

├─ EPS Growth > 25%

├─ PER: accept up to 30x (if growth justify)

└─ Sector: Tech, Consumer Discretionary

Expected result: 10-15 stocks

```

**Dividend Income Portfolio:**

```

├─ Market Cap > Rp 10T

├─ Dividend Yield > 4%

├─ Payout Ratio: 40-70% (sustainable)

├─ ROE > 12%

├─ DER < 1

└─ Consecutive dividend payment > 5 years

Expected result: 10-20 stocks

```

---

### C. Quantitative Screening - US Stocks

**Tools:**

- **Finviz.com** (Free, powerful)

- **TradingView Stock Screener**

- **Yahoo Finance Screener**

#### **Finviz Screener Setup (Growth Stocks):**

```

Descriptive:

├─ Market Cap: +Large (>$10B) atau +Mid ($2-10B)

├─ Average Volume: >500K

Fundamental:

├─ P/E: Under 30

├─ PEG: Under 1.5

├─ ROE: Over 15%

├─ Debt/Eq: Under 0.5

├─ EPS growth this year: Over 15%

├─ EPS growth next year: Over 10%

├─ Sales growth past 5Y: Over 10%

Technical:

├─ Price: Above SMA50

├─ RSI: 40-70 (not overbought)

Result: Click "Elite" or export to CSV

```

**Sector-Specific (Example: Tech Growth):**

```

Finviz:

├─ Sector: Technology

├─ Market Cap: +Mid, +Large

├─ P/S (Price/Sales): Under 5

├─ EPS growth next 5Y: Over 15%

├─ Gross Margin: Over 50% (high margin tech)

├─ ROE: Over 20%

Result: 20-40 stocks

Then manually filter by moat & competitive advantage

```

---

## 4. STAGE 3: Quality Check (Deep Dive Fundamental)

Setelah quantitative filter, kita punya ~20-30 stocks.

**Sekarang deep dive 1-by-1.**

### A. Checklist Deep Dive per Saham (Alokasi 30-45 menit/saham)

#### **1. Business Model Understanding**

```

[ ] Apakah saya paham 100% bisnis ini?

├─ Produk/jasa apa yang dijual?

├─ Revenue stream dari mana?

├─ Customer base siapa?

└─ Siapa kompetitor utama?

[ ] Apakah bisnis ini simple atau kompleks?

└─ Warren Buffett: "Never invest in a business you cannot understand"

[ ] Apakah ada competitive advantage (moat)?

├─ Brand power (e.g., UNVR)

├─ Network effect (e.g., GOTO - debatable)

├─ Cost leadership (e.g., ACES logistics)

├─ Switching cost (e.g., BBCA - people jarang ganti bank)

└─ Regulatory moat (e.g., TLKM)

```

**Example: BBCA**

```

✅ Business model: Jelas (simpan-pinjam, fee-based income)

✅ Moat: Switching cost tinggi, brand trust, largest ATM network

✅ Revenue: Diversified (NII + fee income)

✅ Customer: Retail + SME + corporate (balanced)

✅ Risk: Regulasi BI, economic slowdown

```

---

#### **2. Management Quality**

```

[ ] Track record management?

└─ Cek LinkedIn CEO/CFO, tenure, previous achievement

[ ] Corporate governance score?

└─ ASEAN CG Scorecard, laporan CGPI

[ ] Insider ownership?

├─ > 10% ownership (skin in the game)

└─ Recent insider buying/selling? (cek di IDX announcements)

[ ] Red flags?

❌ Frequent related party transactions

❌ Frequent restatement laporan keuangan

❌ High turnover C-level executives

```

**Where to Check (IDN):**

- idx.co.id → Company → Corporate Actions

- Laporan Tahunan (Annual Report) - Section: Management Profile

- Google: "[Nama CEO] track record"

---

#### **3. Financial Deep Dive (Beyond Ratios)**

**Cek Laporan Keuangan 3 Tahun Terakhir:**

```

Revenue Analysis:

[ ] Tren naik konsisten? Atau fluktuatif?

[ ] Breakdown per segmen (jika ada)

└─ Segmen mana yang tumbuh? Yang declining?

[ ] Apakah growth organic atau dari akuisisi?

Margin Analysis:

[ ] Gross margin trend? (Naik = pricing power, Turun = kompetisi ketat)

[ ] Operating margin trend? (Efisiensi operasional)

[ ] Net margin trend? (Bottomline health)

Cash Flow Analysis:

[ ] Operating CF positif & growing?

[ ] FCF (Operating CF - Capex) positif?

[ ] Apakah FCF > Net Income? (Quality of earnings)

Balance Sheet:

[ ] Asset growth sesuai dengan revenue growth?

[ ] Inventory turnover (untuk retail/manufacture)? Makin cepat = makin bagus

[ ] Receivable days? Makin pendek = makin bagus (collect cash cepat)

```

**Red Flag Examples:**

```

❌ Revenue naik, tapi receivables naik lebih cepat

└─ Possible aggressive revenue recognition

❌ Net income tinggi, tapi Operating CF rendah/negatif

└─ Earnings quality rendah (paper profit)

❌ Debt naik signifikan tanpa diikuti asset produktif

└─ Debt untuk cover operational (bad sign)

```

---

#### **4. Industry & Competitive Position**

```

[ ] Posisi market share?

├─ #1, #2, #3 di industri?

└─ Trend naik atau turun?

[ ] Competitive landscape?

├─ Oligopoly (few players) = good

├─ Fragmented (many players) = race to bottom

└─ Monopoly = excellent tapi risky (regulasi)

[ ] Threat dari disruptor?

└─ Example: TAXI vs GOTO (disrupted)

└─ Example: Bank traditional vs Fintech (adapting)

[ ] Barrier to entry industri?

├─ Tinggi (capital intensive, regulasi) = protect incumbent

└─ Rendah = kompetisi intens

```

**Tools:**

- Google: "[Company name] market share Indonesia"

- Laporan Tahunan: Management Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)

- Industry reports (Frost & Sullivan, Gartner, dll - if accessible)

---

### B. Scoring System (Buat Objektif)

**Template Scoring (0-10 per kategori, total 100):**

|-------------|-----------|-----------------|-------------------|

| Business Model Clarity | 10% | | |

| Competitive Moat | 15% | | |

| Management Quality | 10% | | |

| Financial Health (DER, Current Ratio) | 15% | | |

| Profitability (ROE, Margin) | 20% | | |

| Growth (Revenue, EPS) | 15% | | |

| Valuation (PER, PBV vs historical) | 10% | | |

| Industry Attractiveness | 5% | | |

| **TOTAL** | **100%** | | **___/10** |

**Interpretation:**

- **8-10:** Strong Buy (conviction tinggi)

- **6-8:** Buy (masuk watchlist, wait for better price)

- **4-6:** Hold/Pass (ada concern)

- **< 4:** Avoid (too many red flags)

**Example: BBCA Scoring**

|---------|--------|-------|---------|

| Business Model Clarity | 10% | 9 | 0.9 |

| Competitive Moat | 15% | 9 | 1.35 |

| Management | 10% | 8 | 0.8 |

| Financial Health | 15% | 9 | 1.35 |

| Profitability | 20% | 9 | 1.8 |

| Growth | 15% | 7 | 1.05 |

| Valuation | 10% | 6 | 0.6 |

| Industry | 5% | 8 | 0.4 |

| **TOTAL** | **100%** | | **8.25/10** |

**Conclusion:** Strong Buy (fundamentally excellent, valuasi slightly expensive tapi masih acceptable)

---

## 5. STAGE 4: Bandarmologi Check (Follow the Smart Money)

Setelah fundamental oke, cek: **Siapa yang beli/jual?**

### A. Foreign Flow Analysis (IDN Specific)

**Where to Check:**

- RTI Business (Daily Foreign Net)

- Stockbit (Foreign Activity)

- IDX Website (Foreign Transaction Summary)

**Metrics:**

| **Metric** | **Bullish Signal** | **Bearish Signal** |

|-----------|-------------------|-------------------|

| **Foreign Net Buy/Sell** | Net buy > Rp 50M/hari (sustained) | Net sell > Rp 100M/hari |

| **Foreign Ownership %** | Naik dari 20% → 30% (accumulation) | Turun dari 40% → 30% (distribution) |

| **Avg Foreign Buy Price** | Di atas current price (mereka average up) | Di bawah current price (cutting loss) |

**Example Analysis:**

```

BBCA (Check di RTI):

├─ Foreign Net Buy: +Rp 200M (3 hari terakhir)

├─ Foreign Ownership: 45% (historical 40-48%)

├─ Trend: Accumulation

└─ Conclusion: Institutional masih percaya, positive signal

```

---

### B. Broker Analysis (Siapa yang Agresif Beli/Jual?)

**Top Broker to Watch (IDN):**

| **Broker Code** | **Entity** | **Characteristic** |

|----------------|-----------|-------------------|

| **YP** | Mirae Asset | Foreign institutional |

| **GT** | Mandiri Sekuritas | Domestic institutional |

| **OP** | UOB Kay Hian | Foreign institutional |

| **MG** | Morgan Stanley | Foreign institutional |

| **PD** | Phillip Securities | Mixed |

| **Retail dominan** | Banyak kode kecil (AM, RK, dll) | Biasanya weak hands |

**How to Read (Stockbit/RTI - Broker Summary):**

```

BBCA Today:

Top 5 Buyer:

1. YP (Foreign) - Rp 50M

2. GT (Domestic Inst) - Rp 30M

3. OP (Foreign) - Rp 25M

...

Top 5 Seller:

1. AM (Retail) - Rp 15M

2. RK (Retail) - Rp 10M

...

Interpretation:

✅ Institutional buying, retail selling = STRONG BUY signal

❌ Retail buying, institutional selling = Distribution (AVOID)

```

---

### C. Volume & Price Action Analysis

**Pattern Bandarmologi:**

#### **1. Accumulation (Bandar sedang kumpulin)**

```

Characteristics:

├─ Price sideways/turun perlahan (3-6 bulan)

├─ Volume rendah saat turun

├─ Volume spike saat naik sedikit

├─ Foreign/big broker net buy konsisten (meski price turun)

└─ Support level kuat (buywall)

Example Chart Pattern:

Price: ~~~~__~~~~__~~~~ (ranging)

Volume: low low low SPIKE low low SPIKE

Action: ACCUMULATE bertahap (DCA)

```

#### **2. Distribution (Bandar sedang jual)**

```

Characteristics:

├─ Price sideways setelah rally panjang

├─ Volume tinggi tapi price ga naik-naik

├─ Foreign/big broker net sell

├─ Resistance level kuat (sellwall)

└─ Breakdown dari support = konfirmasi

Example:

Price: Naik 50% → sideways 2 bulan → breakdown

Volume: SPIKE tinggi saat sideways

Action: AVOID atau TAKE PROFIT

```

#### **3. Markup (Bandar sedang naikkan)**

```

Characteristics:

├─ Price breakout dari accumulation zone

├─ Volume meningkat saat naik

├─ Pullback volume rendah (weak selling)

├─ Higher high, higher low (uptrend jelas)

Action: BUY on pullback, HOLD jika sudah punya

```

#### **4. Markdown (Bandar sedang turunkan/keluar)**

```

Characteristics:

├─ Price breakdown dari distribution zone

├─ Volume tinggi saat turun

├─ Rally volume rendah (dead cat bounce)

├─ Lower low, lower high (downtrend)

Action: AVOID, atau wait for capitulation bottom

```

---

### D. Tools Bandarmologi (IDN)

**Free:**

- **Stockbit:** Broker summary, foreign flow

- **RTI Business:** Real-time broker data (premium feature)

- **IPOT (Indo Premier):** Broker analysis

**Advanced (Paid):**

- **Ajaib Sekuritas Pro:** Heat map transaksi broker

- **Phintraco Sekuritas:** Bandarmology tools

**Manual Method (Free):**

```

1. Buka idx.co.id

2. Market Data → Trading Summary → By Broker

3. Download Excel

4. Analisa manual:

├─ Sum total buy per broker

├─ Sum total sell per broker

└─ Net = Buy - Sell

```

---

## 6. STAGE 5: Technical Timing (When to Press the Buy Button)

Fundamental ✅, Bandarmologi ✅ → **Sekarang: Kapan entry?**

### A. Multi-Timeframe Analysis

**Rule:** Align 3 timeframes

| **Timeframe** | **Purpose** | **Indicator Focus** |

|--------------|-----------|-------------------|

| **Monthly** | Trend utama | MA 200, support/resistance major |

| **Weekly** | Trend menengah | MA 50/200, RSI, MACD |

| **Daily** | Timing entry | Candlestick pattern, volume, Fib retracement |

**Ideal Entry Setup:**

```

Monthly: Uptrend (price > MA200)

↓

Weekly: Pullback ke MA50 atau support

↓

Daily: Reversal pattern (hammer, bullish engulfing) + volume surge

↓

ENTRY

```

---

### B. Key Technical Levels

#### **1. Support & Resistance (Horizontal)**

**How to Identify:**

```

1. Buka chart 1 tahun (daily)

2. Tandai level dimana price "memantul" berkali-kali

3. Level yang tersentuh 3x+ = strong S/R

```

**Usage:**

```

Entry: Buy dekat support (risk kecil, SL jelas)

Avoid: Buy dekat resistance (risk besar, bisa reject)

Example BBCA:

Support: Rp 8,500 (tersentuh 4x dalam 6 bulan)

Resistance: Rp 9,500

Current: Rp 9,000

Action: Wait pullback ke 8,500-8,700 (risk-reward optimal)

```

---

#### **2. Moving Averages**

**Setup:**

- MA 20 (short-term)

- MA 50 (medium-term)

- MA 200 (long-term)

**Golden Cross (Bullish):**

```

MA 50 cross above MA 200 = Strong buy signal

Example: Terjadi setelah base building 6-12 bulan

```

**Death Cross (Bearish):**

```

MA 50 cross below MA 200 = Avoid/sell signal

```

**Pullback Strategy:**

```

Uptrend (price > MA200):

├─ Buy saat price pullback ke MA50

├─ SL below MA50

└─ Target: Previous high atau resistance

Example:

Price: Rp 10,000

MA50: Rp 9,500

MA200: Rp 9,000

Setup:

├─ Buy: 9,500-9,600 (bounce dari MA50)

├─ SL: 9,300 (below MA50)

├─ Target: 10,500 (previous resistance)

└─ Risk-Reward: (10,500-9,500)/(9,500-9,300) = 1,000/200 = 5:1 ✅

```

---

#### **3. RSI (Relative Strength Index)**

**Settings:** 14 period

**Zones:**

- **> 70:** Overbought (hati-hati, bisa koreksi)

- **30-70:** Neutral

- **< 30:** Oversold (buy opportunity)

**Strategy:**

```

Strong Uptrend + RSI < 40 (pada pullback) = BUY

Weak/Downtrend + RSI > 60 = AVOID (bear rally)

Divergence (Advanced):

Price: Higher high

RSI: Lower high

└─ Bearish divergence (momentum melemah) = warning signal

```

---

#### **4. Volume Confirmation**

**Rule:** Price naik dengan volume tinggi = healthy

Price naik dengan volume rendah = weak (likely reversal)

**Pattern:**

```

Breakout + Volume > 2x avg volume = Valid breakout

Breakout + Volume normal/rendah = False breakout (biasanya fail)

```

**Example:**

```

BBCA breakout resistance 9,500:

├─ Volume: 50 juta lembar (avg: 20 juta)

└─ Conclusion: Valid breakout, momentum kuat

GOTO breakout resistance 100:

├─ Volume: 200 juta lembar (avg: 300 juta)

└─ Conclusion: Weak breakout, likely bull trap

```

---

### C. Entry Patterns (High Probability)

#### **1. Pullback Entry (Safest)**

```

Conditions:

├─ Trend: Uptrend (price > MA200)

├─ Pullback: Price turun ke MA50 atau Fib 0.382-0.5

├─ RSI: 40-50 (not oversold tapi mulai rebound)

├─ Candlestick: Hammer/bullish engulfing

└─ Volume: Surge on reversal day

Entry: Close di atas reversal candle

SL: Below low of reversal candle

Target: Previous high atau Fib extension 1.618

```

**Chart Example:**

```

Price: Uptrend dari 8,000 → 10,000

Pullback: 10,000 → 9,200 (touch MA50)

Reversal: Hammer candle @ 9,200, volume 2x avg

Entry: 9,300 (close above hammer)

SL: 9,000 (below hammer low)

Target: 10,500

RR: (10,500-9,300)/(9,300-9,000) = 4:1 ✅

```

---

#### **2. Breakout Entry (Aggressive)**

```

Conditions:

├─ Base building: Minimal 3 bulan consolidation

├─ Resistance: Tersentuh 3x+ (strong resistance)

├─ Volume: Dry up during consolidation

├─ Breakout: Price close > resistance dengan volume surge (>2x avg)

└─ Retest: Price pullback ke resistance (now become support), lalu bounce

Entry: Pada retest support (ex-resistance)

SL: Below retest low

Target: Measured move (tinggi base = target dari breakout)

```

**Chart Example:**

```

Base: 8,000-9,000 (6 bulan)

Resistance: 9,000

Breakout: Close 9,100 dengan volume 3x avg

Retest: Turun ke 9,000, bounce

Entry: 9,050

SL: 8,850

Target: 9,000 + (9,000-8,000) = 10,000 (measured move)

```

---

#### **3. Reversal Bottom (Contrarian, High Risk High Reward)**

```

Conditions:

├─ Downtrend berkepanjangan (3-6 bulan)

├─ Capitulation: Volume spike ekstrem + price crash

├─ Hammer/bullish engulfing di support major

├─ RSI: < 30 (deep oversold)

├─ Divergence: Price lower low, RSI higher low (bullish divergence)

Entry: Close di atas reversal candle

SL: Tight (5-7% below entry)

Target: MA50 atau Fib 0.5 retracement

⚠️ High risk: Bisa jadi falling knife (catch lebih cepat dari seharusnya)

```

---

### D. Position Sizing & Risk Management per Trade

**Formula:**

```

Position Size = (Total Portfolio × Risk% per trade) / (Entry price - SL price)

Example:

├─ Portfolio: Rp 100 juta

├─ Risk per trade: 1% = Rp 1 juta

├─ Entry: Rp 9,500

├─ SL: Rp 9,000

├─ Risk per share: 500

Position Size = 1,000,000 / 500 = 2,000 shares

Investment = 2,000 × 9,500 = Rp 19 juta (19% dari portfolio)

Jika SL kena: Loss = Rp 1 juta (1% portfolio) ✅

Jika target Rp 11,000 tercapai: Gain = 2,000 × 1,500 = Rp 3 juta (3% portfolio)

Risk-Reward: 3:1 ✅

```

**Rules:**

- Max risk per trade: **1-2%** dari total portfolio

- Max allocation per stock: **15-20%** dari portfolio (untuk blue chip), **5-10%** (untuk speculative)

- Jika conviction sangat tinggi: Max 25% (rare case)

---

## 7. Putting It All Together: Full Example (BBCA Case Study)

### **STAGE 1: Universe Definition**

```

Top Down (Sesi 3):

├─ Cycle: Early easing (Fed mulai dovish)

├─ Sektor pilihan: Financials

├─ Market: 40% IDN

└─ Focus: Banking sector

Filter Liquidity:

└─ Market cap > 10T, avg value > 50M

Result: 10 bank stocks (BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, BBNI, dll)

```

---

### **STAGE 2: Quantitative Screening**

**Metrics Comparison (4 Big Banks):**

| **Ticker** | **ROE** | **PER** | **PBV** | **DER** | **CAR** | **NPL** | **NIM** |

|-----------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|

| **BBCA** | 18% | 18x | 4.5x | 6.2x | 25% | 0.4% | 6.5% |

| **BBRI** | 16% | 12x | 2.8x | 6.5x | 23% | 2.1% | 7.2% |

| **BMRI** | 14% | 11x | 2.2x | 7.0x | 22% | 2.3% | 5.8% |

| **BBNI** | 13% | 10x | 1.8x | 7.2x | 20% | 2.5% | 5.5% |

**Interpretation:**

```

BBCA: Premium valuation (PER 18x, PBV 4.5x), justified by:

├─ Highest ROE (18%)

├─ Lowest NPL (0.4% - best asset quality)

├─ Highest CAR (25% - very strong capital)

└─ Proven track record

BBRI: More attractive valuation (PER 12x), high NIM (7.2%)

└─ Good alternative (value play)

Conclusion: BBCA = quality, BBRI = value

```

---

### **STAGE 3: Quality Check**

**BBCA Deep Dive:**

```

Business Model:

✅ Diversified (retail, SME, corporate)

✅ Fee-based income strong (40% of revenue)

✅ Digital transformation leader (BCA Mobile, Blu)

Moat:

✅ Brand (top-of-mind untuk banking)

✅ Network (largest ATM, 1,200+ branches)

✅ Switching cost (customer loyalty tinggi)

✅ Digital ecosystem

Management:

✅ Consistent leadership (CEO tenure panjang)

✅ Track record: ROE > 15% sustained 10+ years

✅ Insider ownership: Djarum Group 50%+ (aligned interest)

Financial Deep Dive:

✅ Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8%

✅ EPS CAGR 3Y: 10%

✅ FCF positive & growing

✅ Dividend payout 40-50% (sustainable)

Industry:

✅ Indonesian banking masih underpenetrated (growth potential)

✅ Digital banking competition rising (risk), tapi BBCA adapting well

Scoring: 8.5/10 (Strong Buy fundamentally)

```

---

### **STAGE 4: Bandarmologi**

**Check RTI Business (Example data):**

```

Foreign Flow (7 hari terakhir):

├─ Day 1: +Rp 50M

├─ Day 2: +Rp 120M

├─ Day 3: -Rp 30M

├─ Day 4: +Rp 80M

├─ Day 5: +Rp 100M

├─ Day 6: +Rp 60M

└─ Day 7: +Rp 40M

Total: +Rp 420M (Net Buy)

Foreign Ownership: 48% (near historical high 50%)

Top Buyer Brokers:

1. YP (Mirae Asset) - Foreign

2. GT (Mandiri Sekuritas) - Domestic Inst

3. OP (UOB) - Foreign

Conclusion: Institutional accumulation, positive signal ✅

```

**Volume Analysis:**

```

Avg Volume: 25 juta shares/hari

Last 3 days: 30-35 juta shares (above average)

Price action: Sideways dengan volume meningkat (possible accumulation)

```

---

### **STAGE 5: Technical Timing**

**Chart Analysis (Assume current price: Rp 9,200):**

```

Monthly Chart:

├─ Trend: Uptrend (above MA200 @ 8,500)

├─ Pattern: Higher lows formation

└─ Bias: Bullish ✅

Weekly Chart:

├─ MA50: Rp 9,000

├─ MA200: Rp 8,500

├─ Current: Pullback dari 9,800 → 9,200 (touch MA50)

├─ RSI: 48 (neutral, not oversold)

└─ MACD: Bullish crossover forming

Daily Chart:

├─ Pattern: Hammer candle @ 9,150 (yesterday)

├─ Volume: 40 juta shares (1.6x avg)

├─ Support: 9,000 (MA50 weekly, also horizontal support)

├─ Resistance: 9,800 (previous high)

Entry Setup:

├─ Entry: 9,250 (close above hammer)

├─ SL: 8,950 (below MA50 & hammer low)

├─ Target 1: 9,800 (previous high)

├─ Target 2: 10,200 (Fib extension 1.618)

Risk-Reward:

├─ Risk: 9,250 - 8,950 = 300

├─ Reward (T1): 9,800 - 9,250 = 550

├─ RR Ratio: 550/300 = 1.83:1 (acceptable, ideally >2:1)

Position Sizing (Portfolio Rp 100 juta, risk 1%):

├─ Risk: Rp 1 juta

├─ Risk per share: Rp 300

├─ Position: 1,000,000 / 300 = 3,333 shares

├─ Investment: 3,333 × 9,250 = Rp 30.8 juta (30.8% portfolio)

Adjustment: Agak besar untuk 1 stock, turunkan jadi 2,500 shares (23% portfolio)

```

---

### **FINAL DECISION:**

```

✅ Fundamental: Excellent (8.5/10)

✅ Bandarmologi: Positive (institutional buying)

✅ Technical: Good setup (pullback to support, reversal forming)

ACTION: BUY 2,500 shares @ 9,250

SL: 8,950

Target: 9,800-10,200

Risk: 1% portfolio

Time horizon: 3-6 bulan (swing trade) atau hold long-term (investment)

```

---

## 8. Template Watchlist & Tracking

### A. Watchlist Structure (Google Sheets/Excel)

**Columns:**

|--------|--------|-------|------------------|--------------|-----------|--------------|---------------|--------|

| BBCA | Financials | 5 (Ready) | 8.5/10 | Accumulation | Pullback | 9,000-9,300 | 9,200 | BUY ✅ |

| ICBP | Cons Staples | 3 (Need bandarmologi check) | 8/10 | - | Uptrend | 10,000-10,200 | 10,500 | WAIT |

---

### B. Trade Journal Template

**Per Trade (Mandatory!):**

```

Entry Date: __________

Ticker: __________

Entry Price: __________

Position Size: __________ shares (___% portfolio)

Entry Reason:

├─ Fundamental: ___________________

├─ Bandarmologi: __________________

└─ Technical: _____________________

Stop Loss: __________

Target: __________

Risk-Reward: __________

Exit Date: __________

Exit Price: __________

Result: +/- _____% (+/- Rp _______)

Lessons Learned:

___________________________________

```

**Review Monthly:**

- Win rate: ____%

- Avg gain: ____%

- Avg loss: ____%

- Expectancy: (Win rate × Avg gain) - (Loss rate × Avg loss)

---

## 9. Common Mistakes & How to Avoid

### ❌ **Mistake 1: Skip Top Down, Langsung Stock Picking**

```

Problem: Beli saham bagus di sektor yang salah cycle

Fix: ALWAYS start dari Layer 1-3 (Sesi 3), baru stock picking

```

### ❌ **Mistake 2: Falling in Love with a Stock**

```

Problem: Hold terus meski fundamental berubah (sunk cost fallacy)

Fix: Set objective criteria untuk sell (fundamental deteriorate, SL kena, target tercapai)

```

### ❌ **Mistake 3: Over-Diversification**

```

Problem: Punya 30 stocks, tidak tracking semua

Fix: Max 10-15 stocks untuk active portfolio (retail investor)

```

### ❌ **Mistake 4: Ignore Position Sizing**

```

Problem: All-in 1 stock, jika salah = portfolio hancur

Fix: Max 15-20% per stock (blue chip), 5-10% (speculative)

```

### ❌ **Mistake 5: No Stop Loss**

```

Problem: Floating loss -30%, -40%, hoping for recovery

Fix: ALWAYS set SL, max loss per trade 1-2% portfolio

```

---

## 10. Action Plan Post-Sesi 4

### **Week 1:**

- [ ] Setup screener (Stockbit/Finviz)

- [ ] Jalankan filter quantitative untuk 3 sektor dari top down

- [ ] Export hasil ke spreadsheet

### **Week 2:**

- [ ] Deep dive fundamental 10 stocks dari hasil screener

- [ ] Scoring masing-masing (template scoring di atas)

- [ ] Shortlist 5 stocks dengan score > 7/10

### **Week 3:**

- [ ] Bandarmologi check untuk 5 stocks

- [ ] Technical analysis, tentukan entry level

### **Week 4:**

- [ ] Execute: Buy 2-3 stocks dengan best setup

- [ ] Set SL & alert

- [ ] Start trade journal

---

## Kesimpulan Sesi 4

**Key Takeaways:**

1. **Screening adalah funnel sistematis** - dari 800 stocks jadi 3-5 conviction buys

2. **Quantitative + Qualitative** - numbers don't lie, tapi context matters

3. **Bandarmologi confirms fundamental** - ikuti smart money

4. **Technical untuk timing** - buy right stock at right price

5. **Position sizing protects capital** - no single trade should kill portfolio

**Hierarchy:**

```

Top Down (Macro/Sector) > Fundamental > Bandarmologi > Technical > Position Sizing

```

---

## Preview Sesi 5: Screening Obligasi, Emas & Forex

Setelah deep dive saham, next session:

- **Obligasi:** Cara screening SBN vs corporate bonds, yield hunting strategy

- **Emas:** Kapan buy/sell emas berdasarkan makro (real yield, USD, inflation)

- **Forex:** Pair selection, carry trade strategy, risk management forex

**Plus:**

- Portfolio integration: Kapan rotate dari saham ke obligasi?

- Crisis hedging: Berapa % emas ideal dalam berbagai skenario?

---

**Lanjut Sesi 5, atau ada bagian Sesi 4 yang perlu diperdalam?**